When I say “our”, I don’t mean the fate of Britain, but that of Europe and the rest of the world.
Chancellor Angela Merkel has been at the helm of the German powerhouse economy for 16 years, 4 democratically elections later she has seen off God knows how many of her peers in the United States, Britain, and most of the rest of the western world.
Her legacy will be telling.
Her influence not just in Germany but wider afield deserves note.
She accelerated the phasing out of nuclear power, an overhang from a previous coalition government involving the Greens – no mean feat considering the dependency of German manufacturing industry on electricity to churn out cars, pharmaceuticals, and the rest.
In effect, the fate of the euro currency was in her hands –
she kept Greece in the single currency, even if the price was continent wide austerity measures, from which the bloc has substantially recovered pre-pandemic.
Unlike more recent policies in Britain, the outgoing Chancellor took the brave step to open her country’s borders to over 1 million refugees during the first migration crisis towards the end of the previous decade.
In her own inimitable style, quiet and assured, she, more than others, realised that her homeland needed highly qualified migrants to supplement the aging population nearer to home.
She took a stand in this century, for economic and compassionate reasons, just as did Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in the latter decades of the previous century. Both won, in very different ways, both were and are tough women, taking principled and pragmatic stands, where others dared not to tread.
While on finance and economics, Merkel was and is very much a creature of her austere upbringing in the former East Germany (DDR), she was also able to see the benefit of the issuance of common European debt to fund the path out of the pandemic. Could this be regarded as a type of European Marshall Fund from which Germany so benefited after the Second World War?
At a minimum she tolerated what some may regard as the embodiment of Modern Monetary Policy as the European Central Bank basically printed money post Lehman to survive and forge ahead. Of course, the Fed in the US did similarly and more quickly.
The Bank of England followed suit, but recent trends closer to home may herald a tightening of monetary policy, and even a hike in interest rates very soon
As noted in last week’s Caroline’s note, changes to National Insurance contributions, entrepreneurs’ support, hikes in corporate tax – and now higher interest rates – put Britain in a difficult situation, at its mildest, with consequences for U/HNW individuals and families.
But was it all a bed of roses for Chancellor Merkel and her fellow citizens?
If you were just to look at the cover of this week’s Economist magazine (“The mess Merkel leaves behind”) one would just have to wonder if the woman did any good at all!
Clearly, Germany faces many challenges: decades of under investment in areas such as infrastructure (roads, rail, education), a chronic lack of digitalisation across the economy, lack of ambition on climate goals, a car industry playing serious catch up on going electric, poor national and regional governance structures and delivery, not to mention a highly liquid local/regional banking system not fit for purpose and highly politicised.
Maybe this list could be written for Britain and other larger western economies? Certainly. Like Germany, they have a lot to learn from smaller more nimble countries where these issues are to the fore of public policy.
But why are we so concerned about Angela’s successor as Chancellor and the formation of a new Government in Germany?
If the incoming administration comes to grips with some, or all, of the foregoing cited issues, Germany will become great again – instead of MAGA, it will be MGGA (Make Germany Great Again).
This will have significant implications for regional policy in Europe: by that I mean for Britain, for the EU and the rest of Europe.
A stronger Germany means a stronger EU, all together more competitive and driving strategic autonomy on socio-economic matters within the single market. Keeping inflation at or close to 2% will continue to drive German policy, with positive implications for investment and family wealth overall.
Can Germany in the coming parliament, unshackle herself from ultra-conservative stimulus policies? Merkel serves as a serious precedent, even if in her own quiet and gentle way.
Constitutionally, Germany is hamstrung in terms of raising its public debt as, say, the Americans do. But imagine an incoming government having the verve to circumvent this “debt brake” by some inventive means (quite easy if the political will were to be there)?
This would mean a huge domestic stimulus which would flow across the continent to the benefit of almost everyone.
A stronger Germany, could also, in the foreign policy field, act as a bulwark against Russia and an increasingly assertive China, to the overall benefit of this part of the world.
And, just as importantly, the new Chancellor and the incoming Government could deepen the transatlantic bond with our friends in the Biden administration.
While, perhaps, all of this may not play out as one might wish, there are certainly forces at play which might suggest that, at the very least, some of our fate rests in German hands!
These issues deserve to be further teased out at our next round of Caroline’s Club on 5 and 7 October – meanwhile please engage with one another to share your thoughts arising from this note.
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